Strategy Insights
Honest base rates from every strategy ever graded on Tessen — out-of-sample, net of fees, on 6 years of data. These are facts about the past corpus, never predictions about your strategy. Get your own number free at /grade.
Grade distribution
The win-rate trap, in our own data
Of the 22 graded strategies that win more than 60% of their trades, 13.6% still graded F. A high win rate is not an edge — expectancy after fees is. That's why the grade never uses win rate to pass a strategy.
What actually kills strategies
Share of graded strategies failing each hard gate (107 with full gate verdicts).
Pattern base rates
Grouped by timeframe + primary entry indicator. Thin samples are labeled — small n means noise, not signal.
| Timeframe | Entry indicator | Graded | Fail rate | Median expectancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | rsi | 43 | 46.5% | +15.78bp |
| 15m | ema | 13(thin sample) | 30.8% | +3.88bp |
| 1h | roc | 9(thin sample) | 11.1% | +23.26bp |
| 15m | rsi | 6(thin sample) | 83.3% | +5bp |
Aggregates over all 113 strategies ever graded on Tessen (public grades + saved agents), out-of-sample, net of fees. Base rates about the past — not predictions.
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