RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion

Verified — this backtest ran on Tessen's own engine and data. The inputs can't be faked.

F
8 / 100fails the gate
Win rate 37.8% (context, not edge)
OOS Net Expectancy > 0
Clears the Cost Hurdle
Robust, Not Lucky
Survivable Drawdown
Not Overfit
Net Expectancy
-19.76bp
OOS Trades
4629
Sized Max DD
99%
edge
robustness
risk
execution
live
Per-asset OOS expectancy
AVAX/USDT:USDT
-30.3bp
BNB/USDT:USDT
-19.2bp
BTC/USDT:USDT
-20.5bp
DOGE/USDT:USDT
-23.5bp
ETH/USDT:USDT
-28.4bp
LINK/USDT:USDT
-16.0bp
SOL/USDT:USDT
-12.0bp
XRP/USDT:USDT
-6.8bp
Why this grade — Aurix post-mortem
It loses money out of sample

On data it never saw, the agent averaged -19.76bp per trade after costs (win rate 37.8% — irrelevant when losers outweigh winners). Historically, 41.2% of similar strategies (same timeframe/entry indicator) also fail this (N=51).

Try: This is an entry-signal problem, not a tuning problem. Change the core idea: different condition, different timeframe, or add a regime filter (e.g. only trade high-volatility periods) — don't just widen stops.

The edge isn't robust — it's carried by a few symbols

It loses on AVAX/USDT:USDT, BNB/USDT:USDT, BTC/USDT:USDT, DOGE/USDT:USDT, ETH/USDT:USDT, LINK/USDT:USDT, SOL/USDT:USDT, XRP/USDT:USDT — under 60% of its universe is positive, which usually means the backtest found luck, not a mechanism. Historically, 41.2% of similar strategies (same timeframe/entry indicator) also fail this (N=51).

Try: Either the thesis only applies to certain assets (then say so — trim the universe to where the mechanism makes sense), or the signal is noise. Ask: WHY would this work on some symbols and not others?

You wouldn't survive its losing streak

Simulated at responsible sizing, the worst drawdown hits 99% — deep enough that most people abandon the strategy exactly at the bottom. Historically, 21.6% of similar strategies (same timeframe/entry indicator) also fail this (N=51).

Try: Cut risk per trade, tighten the catastrophe stop, or reduce concurrent positions. An edge you can't hold through its drawdown is an edge you don't have.

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A Tessen Grade is a historical, out-of-sample statistical measurement — not investment advice, a prediction, or a guarantee of future results. Most strategies fail; a passing grade can stop working as markets change. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Full risk disclosure